Aksels Kibar. CMT. @Tech_Charts1

A Thread 1/ I’ve been ruminating… The bull market that began in April 2025 unfolded more or less normally during its first year. But something changed last month. We got a Whaley Price Thrust, described here: x.com/WayneWhaley113….

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57 years ago

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5/11/2026 Daily Recap: Rest day for the bulls - $SLV best performer today 6%+ - Names in the $GDX ETF also starting to shape up $NEM $WPM $AEM $HYMC - $URA big base and the move has not gotten started yet. $CCJ $UUUU $UEC $NXE - $UFO really nice continued action from a market leader $RKLB. $LUNR $PL also acting well. $ASTS being dragged higher by the strength there. - $SMH 12x ATR from the 50sma. This is not the time to consider new longs here. - Optics woke back up. Lead by $CIEN $LITE $GLW $AAOI - $CRCL big mover on earnings after the morning washout. One to watch going forward. It does appear like the $BTC $ETH space might have seen its lows. - $USO up 3.7% today and refusing to go away. As of now the market seems unaffected by higher gap prices and what that might do to the economy. - Flip side we are seeing retail related names getting hammered, whether it be travel and leisure, clothing or fast food. Consumer being affected? - Cyber security names are acting like the leading software sector at the moment. $CRWD $PANW $FTNT - High quality businesses trading billions and billions of dollars per day are really pushing higher but we also have a VERY extended market in terms of historical action. Interesting market dynamic here. - Positioning with COT is not crowded and NAAIM is a little hot. feels like there is sidelined money just waiting to come in on any market pullback.

$QQQ just hit 10x ATR from the 50sma today. Something that didn't even happen during the dot com bubble!

Ariel Hernandez @RealSimpleAriel

a month ago

$SMH just hit 10x ATR from the 50sma today! The last time SMH was this extended from the 50sma was... Never That's right. Since inception it has NEVER been this stretched from the 50sma. We are now part of history! Make sure you share and tag those who bitched and moaned

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I still wont participate in this rally because there is no volume. How do we think those people are doing? 🤣

QQQ nice move after that failed rounded top but into pretty big channel top here near round 700 level. Doesn’t mean it has to stop, but these are generally “ask for favor” zones that make buying new positions tougher, on average. Over the series of 100 trades for example, if you were to buy at these locations every time you would have a lot less money than what you started with lol. You don’t want to be neighbors with Matt Foley 😆. Are there exceptions? Of course. Every now and then they will just blow right through them higher and make you look like an absolute fool for reducing into them. Maybe this time is one of those, who knows. But generally, best to just manage current positions at these spots and let things build more if looking to buy new merchandise. Best times to buy are when nobody wants to, when setups start to proliferate (peak fear, etc.). Given the strength of this move, there will certainly be lots more opportunities coming down the pipe, just have to be selective/patient. Don’t let a good market bring on bad habits… you will eventually get bitten if you break rule after rule :). HAGW

After a strong market run, the temptation to buy laggards always rises. Don't fall for it! The highest-probability opportunities right now are in resets and pullbacks in names that have already proven leadership. That’s where we want to stay focused. Watching a name like $BE to offer something up next week:

After navigating a +16% $SPX rally using technical indicators, weekly levels, and historical patterns, the move now appears overextended. Access the complete analysis, including implications and validation levels to watch in the event of a pullback. $NDX smartreversals.com/p/spx-hits-ove…

Interest rate trends can persist for decades. The JK Interest Rate Trend Model remains at +2, indicating that the primary long-term trend in rates is still up for now. Read Full Analysis: sentimentrader.com/pricing

Trends end when 1) a market comes into balance with 3 bars price overlap, or 2) there is a sharp V or wide range reversal. The Nasdaq has still been "one time framing" or pattern of higher highs and higher lows. One data point at a time....

What does South Korea's KOSPI record-breaking breakout signal for global and US equities? • Record Breakout: KOSPI surged 6.45% to close at an all-time high 7384.56, its first ever close above 7000, driven by AI chip leaders Samsung and SK Hynix • Signal Track Record: Rare OPR cycle signal (>125 + all-time high) delivered a 75% 3-month win rate for KOSPI, with an average gain of 6.56% post-trigger • Breadth Context: Only 65.7% of KOSPI stocks trade above their 200-day MA, showing narrow, non-euphoric leadership rather than broad market mania • US Sector Implications: S&P 500 posts a 14.6% median 1-year return post-signal, with Energy leading, while Tech and Financials show weak long-term returns By analyzing the KOSPI's rare breakout signal and its historical cross-market implications, this research provides a data-driven framework for global investors to assess near-term momentum and long-term equity allocation risks. Read Full Analysis:sentimentrader.com/pricing

Impressive rallies: last week was $INTC, and this week it's $AMD. If the Intel pattern repeats, $AMD is eyeing $486, unless $406 is lost, triggering a gap-fill attempt. The upper band breached + the RSI divergence is usually something to be careful about. But not these days...

$META: Indecisive candle validated by high volume as price bounced off the lower edge of its volume shelf. The massive gap at $663 is expected to be filled, potentially like the gap fill seen after the previous earnings report. The fast oscillator is now in oversold zone. $QQQ

Limited-time offer launching in 24 hours. See what’s coming: sentimentrader.com/pricing The Fear & Greed Index has just completed a full cycle from extreme fear to extreme greed. Historically, returns have been uneven in the short term, with performance roughly flat over the first one to two months. Outcomes have tended to improve over longer horizons, with performance skewing more positive six to twelve months later.

$SMH: Are breakouts bullish? They are. Just be aware that the last time the RSI for semiconductors was above 80, there was a -6% move in a single day as part of the consolidation. Back then, we didn't have three gaps below us, with the first one alone implying a -4% move. $AMD

$IGV: Bullish MACD reversals at oversold levels (as today) usually generate positive follow-through. The outlook remains bullish as long as the price stays above the 81.7. $NOW $ORCL $PANW

$BTC: Bitcoin is in a bull trend consistently invalidating daily shooting stars as momentum continues. The 10-day moving average is carrying this move and the price is far from greed. Don’t rule out a test of $80.6K within the next couple of days if $77,6K is conquered.

$BTC: Retail eyes RSI. Whales eye Heatmaps. 🐋 $173M shorts nuked at $77k, but the real trap is the $75.4k cluster. It’s a massive liquidity magnet. ✅ Hold $75.4k = Send to $85k+ ❌ Break = Structural failure Tracking the money, not the noise. ⚖️ #BTC #Bitcoin #Liquidation

Is the industrial sector's long-running uptrend facing foundational cracks? • Extreme Liquidity Exit: XLI saw a $590 million single-day net outflow, one of the 10 largest in 20 years, with a 73% chance of downside 1 week post-signal and average losses of 1.7% • Insider Selling Surge: Industrial sector insider selling has hit a 49-week high, a level historically linked to local price peaks, even as the index hit recent highs • Seasonal Headwind: The sector is entering a weak seasonal window, with June historically averaging a near-1% loss after April's typical strength By combining fund flow, insider transaction, and seasonal data, this research delivers a data-driven assessment of rising downside risks in the industrial sector, helping investors evaluate position sizing and risk-reward for new long positions. Read Full Analysis:sentimentrader.com/pricing

$SPX: The gap was filled with a bearish engulfing candle as the RSI fell from overbought levels (70). A tactical pullback/consolidation usually follows. Given the afternoon's indecisive price action, keep a close eye on $7,021; if lost tomorrow, the decline could deepen.