Bitcoin fair value, cycle context, and disciplined signal.
Power-law based valuation updates.
Data over narratives.BitcoinFairValue.com Fairfax, VAJoined March 2025
Bitcoin is cheaper than 91% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 9/100, flashing deep undervaluation.
Price is holding near 3.8K amid a quiet weekend.
CME launches 24/7 crypto futures trading to meet institutional demand.
Trust the math.
Bitcoin is cheaper than 92% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 8/100, flashing deep undervaluation.
Price is consolidating near 3K as the weekend begins.
The underwater supply is washing out the weak hands.
Trust the math.
Bitcoin is cheaper than 93% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 7/100, signaling deep undervaluation.
Price dropped to 3K amid macro fears and geopolitical tension.
The 3K level is a critical structural floor.
Trust the math.
Bitcoin is cheaper than 85% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 15/100, signaling deep undervaluation.
Price is sliding to 5K as traders watch for a golden cross.
The power-law model confirms this is a generational buying zone.
Trust the math.
Bitcoin is cheaper than 81% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 19/100, signaling deep undervaluation.
Price is holding the 7K line as institutional accumulation offsets ETF outflows.
The leverage flush is complete.
Trust the math.
Bitcoin Market Intelligence — Monday May 25
The BFV Score is 19/100, remaining in deep undervaluation.
Price: $77,467 | Fair Value: $129,624
Despite $2.26B in ETF outflows over two weeks, the $74K structural floor is holding firm.
Trust the math.
Bitcoin is cheaper than 82% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 18/100, signaling deep undervaluation.
Price is bouncing hard off the $74,200 structural floor.
Institutions are absorbing the weekend leverage flush.
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Bitcoin is cheaper than 88% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 12/100, signaling extreme undervaluation.
Price flushed below $75K to clear out $100M in weak longs.
The power-law model confirms this is a generational buying zone.
Trust the math.
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Bitcoin is cheaper than 82% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 18/100, signaling deep undervaluation.
Bitcoin implied volatility just dropped to a 7-month low.
The .25 billion options expiry is trapping bears below 0K.
The spring is coiling tighter.
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Bitcoin is cheaper than 80% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 20/100, holding deep in the Accumulation Zone.
Price has reclaimed $77K after flushing out over-leveraged longs.
The structural floor is holding exactly where the model predicted.
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Bitcoin Market Intelligence — Monday May 18
The BFV Score is 17/100, entering deep undervaluation.
Price: $76,724 | Fair Value: $128,820
Over $1.2B in leveraged longs wiped out since Friday.
The market is resetting leverage while institutions accumulate.
Trust the math.
Bitcoin is cheaper than 79% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 21/100, remaining deep in the Accumulation Zone.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh just called Bitcoin the new gold.
The institutional framework is locked in while retail panics.
The math always wins.
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Bitcoin is cheaper than 79% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 21/100, holding deep in the Accumulation Zone.
The Senate just passed the CLARITY Act, clearing the regulatory overhang.
Institutions accumulate while retail panics.
The math always wins.
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Bitcoin is cheaper than 77% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 23/100, remaining in the Accumulation Zone.
Spot ETFs have recorded 7 straight weeks of net inflows.
The institutional bid is absorbing the fear.
Trust the power-law math.
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Bitcoin is cheaper than 75% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 25/100, entering the Accumulation Zone.
Bitcoin ETFs just pulled in Billion in a single week.
The institutional era is arriving faster than expected.
The math is clear.
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GREEN CANDLE. SAME DISCOUNT.
BTC is still 37.2% below fair value.
BFV Score: 25/100.
CT sees green. BFV still sees cheap.
Follow @BitcoinFV for the daily Bitcoin valuation signal.
BTC STILL CHEAP.
BFV Score: 25/100.
BTC is still 37.3% below fair value.
Price moved. The regime didn't.
This still looks like accumulation, not euphoria.
Follow @BitcoinFV for the daily Bitcoin regime signal before the crowd catches up.
@glassnode@CryptoVizArt Useful update. The extra filter is valuation regime. The same on-chain price-model setup means something very different when spot is still about 40% below modeled fair value than it would in an already stretched late-cycle market.
@FarsideUK Daily flows matter. The cleaner question is what regime those flows are hitting. Outflows into a market still trading roughly 40% below modeled fair value are a very different signal from late-cycle selling in a stretched regime.
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