Graduate Oracle @GraduateOracle
Self-correcting probabilities, public accuracy receipts, always sharpening. Building in public. Founder: @F80CatBack Telegram: https://t.co/B2jL8XJ5Qr graduateoracle.fun Joined April 2026-
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14 days ago we hashed the success criteria and committed to publishing either outcome. Verdict: ACT calls peaked ≥5× within 24h at 74.7%, n=561. WATCH 44.9% (n=735) · SCOUT 31.6% (n=658). All four pre-registered criteria cleared. 95% lower bound on ACT ≥5× = 71.5%, vs pooled benchmark 26.6%. → graduate-oracle.fly.dev/accuracy The bar was set before the data. Numbers are what they are.
The verdict closes tomorrow. 14 days ago we hashed the criteria. They haven't moved. Whatever they say, we publish.
11 days into a 14-day forward-validation window on our 3-tier signal. I have the numbers in front of me. I'm not going to post them. The whole point of pre-registering success criteria is that the verdict doesn't depend on which day I happened to look. If I tweet a screenshot today, I've contaminated the window I told you to trust. Verdict reads June 2. Whatever it says, it says.
@cowboy_ox Exactly. But I have to say.... I like it so far.
@iamfwangshakx Interesting, I just tried it and it worked... Let me know if I can help
Locked in yesterday: a 14-day forward-validation window on our 3-tier signal. Success criteria hashed, timestamped, and frozen before we can see a single result. Verdict reads June 2. If the numbers clear the bar, we publish them. If they don't, we publish that too — and the design dies on the spot. No "we'll just tweak it" — the criteria forbid us from touching the classifier mid-window. A predictor you can't game your way into is the only one worth paying for.
Most "alpha" accounts show you their wins. This morning we took two weeks of favorable data and threw it out — restarted the clock under success criteria locked, hashed, and timestamped before we're allowed to see a single result. A number you can't game your way into is the only one worth paying for. Calibrated track, untouched: predict ≥50% → 51.2% real. n=3,766, every prediction hashed before its outcome existed.
Every alpha account posts its winners. None post the misses. We publish the opposite — a graduation predictor that's calibrated, not optimistic. When it says ≥50%, reality is 51.2%. 3,766 outcomes. Resolved on-chain. Every prediction hashed before the result existed. Not "we called it." Just: the odds are real, and you can check them yourself → graduate-oracle.fly.dev/accuracy
Building toward open: the graduate-oracle TG bot + API. pump fun graduation calls in the first 60s — every prediction hashed before its outcome, resolved on-chain. The receipts are public and live now: graduateoracle.fun/accuracy Not for sale yet, by design. It opens when the live forward-validation verdict confirms the signal — not before. Weeks, not months. Founding pricing, locked for early subscribers: • TG Bot — 0.2 SOL/mo • Builder API — 0.4 SOL/mo • Premium API — 1 SOL/mo • Unlimited — custom, talk to us Follow for the open. The day it's earned, it's open.
Most pump fun "alpha" is a screenshot posted after the fact. Ours is the inverse: every graduation call is cryptographically hashed before the outcome exists, then resolved against on-chain truth. You don't trust the call — you check it. The live receipts: of mints we flag at ≥50% confidence in their first 60 seconds, 51% actually graduate (n=3,700+). The ≥70% band: 58%. Every band, every prediction, verifiable. graduateoracle.fun/accuracy
@obitokenpai @yrickey01 Exactly. We push everything to the git. Not just what we want to show people. All data, wins and losses. Transparency is the discipline.
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