SetupAlpha @SetupAlpha
Professional-grade trading strategies from research to your portfolio. setupalpha.com New York Joined September 2023-
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The goal of systematic research is not to find “certainty” or “forget emotions“. It is to identify strategies that remain acceptable after realistic assumptions, out-of-sample testing, and adverse execution conditions are applied.
Join the community here: setup4alpha.substack.com/?utm_source=x&…
We’ve officially hit the #3 New Bestseller on Substack! 🏆 Knowing that these deep dives into backtesting, RealTest, AI and quant workflows are helpful to you is what keeps me going.
A Monte Carlo test is useful for one reason: > Your future trade sequence will not match your backtest trade sequence. Risk comes from the paths capital can take, not just the endpoint.
The full checklist, results, and RealTest code are in the article: setup4alpha.substack.com/p/tested-award…
From $10k to $3.96M As someone who tests RealTest strategies for traders who care about costs, this Dow Award paper is worth studying for one reason: “when leverage earns its place”. The full checklist, results, and RealTest code are in the article:
Watch the full Gemini and RealTest portfolio test here: youtu.be/uJkOIcAzom0?si…
I tested Gemini on a RealTest portfolio build. In this test, it combined 5 strategies, added one Risk Percent control, avoided duplicate symbol exposure, then upgraded weights with rolling 50-day return correlation.
Don’t optimize your strategy for the ideal scenario. Build a system that still works when you’re emotional and the world does something new.
Full breakdown, including the exact prompts and charts: setup4alpha.substack.com/p/codex-vs-gem…
I gave Codex, Gemini, and Claude Code the same RealTest job: build SPY strategy run base test optimize MAs run walk-forward make charts All 3 finished. But there was one catch.
Copy this strategy here: setup4alpha.substack.com/p/the-simplest…
This trading strategy a very simple. > Gaps below yesterday's low. > Buy. > Wait for a green day. > Sell. The backtest had 953 trades and a 64.01% win rate.
Enjoy the full video here: youtube.com/watch?v=iMHpqp…
In theory AI can write a trading strategy in seconds. I tested OpenAI Codex, Gemini, and Claude Code on the same SPY moving-average strategy. My goal was to see which one could move through the actual RealTest research workflow with the fewest fixes.
Bad backtest does not mean backtesting is bad. It means the test was weak.
The full test is here, including the RealTest scritp + rules: setup4alpha.substack.com/p/trend-mean-r…
The useful test is not trend following vs mean reversion. It is whether they fail differently. In this RealTest run, the 50/50 book had lower MaxDD than either standalone system and the best MAR. The best standalone strategy was not the best portfolio ingredient.
You can download the RealTest script and strategy rules here: setupalpha.com/products/nasda…
Last week, I published the Nasdaq momentum strategy. Right now is one of the best periods for momentum this year. Conditions like this usually appear only once or twice a year. You can download the RealTest script and strategy rules here: YTD Results.
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