Gregory Brew @gbrew24
Senior Analyst, Iran and Oil @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @ISSYale. Author of "The Struggle for Iran" and "Petroleum and Progress in Iran." Views my own. eurasiagroup.net/people/gbrew Joined October 2012-
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Expect much more detail on Iran' official position in this interview Fwiw, since Monday most of the "official" pronouncements have come via state media (Tasnim and Fars).
In an exclusive and in-depth interview for Al Mayadeen, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi discusses the developments in Lebanon, particularly the Israeli war on Lebanon, ceasefire negotiations, and the future of the war on the region. The Lebanese segment airs tonight at
The US and Iran are inching toward a deal. It will open the strait (we think) But the nuclear issue will remain unresolved My latest for #TheDispatch @gzeromedia @EurasiaGroup youtube.com/shorts/o7pmycm…
@AliR_Ahmadi Has been like this for as long as I can remember, though they updated last year.
@Jack_McClendon I would contend that if this was a viable option, the US would have attempted it a month ago. A deal with Iran is the only way the strait can reopen. It's the only reason the US is negotiating at all.
Somewhat speculative, as both sides are being tight-lipped regarding the state of play in negotiations, but it's possible that Iran is countering Trump's revisions (which demand clearer language on the nuclear issues) with demands of a more sustainable status quo in Lebanon.
MEMBER OF MEDIA TEAM IN TEHRAN NEGOTIATING TEAM: WE WILL NOT ENTER AN AGREEMENT IN WHICH LEBANON IS IGNORED
-just because nothing has been leaked does not mean talks are not continuing. -just because both sides appear closer does not mean a deal is imminent. -even if a deal is reached, the strait won't reopen immediately. -even if the strait reopens, the physical impact will take months to sort out.
Mozart composed his first symphony at age 8.
I saw it. Now you have to see it. His name is Samuel. And he…is a king.
@AviTillu1 Yep x.com/gbrew24/status…
Also, here is the full exchange: Q: Do you think the blockade will still be in place by Labor Day? Trump: It could be, but I think it's unlikely. I think this will resolve itself fairly quickly.
Trump said a lot of interesting things in his NYP interview. He implied the blockade on Iran could be in place until Labor Day (September). He also suggested he would meet Iran's supreme leader at some point. FWIW if the US maintains its blockade, Iran is unlikely to allow the strait to reopen.
Trump seems generally unperturbed by the frequent skirmishes in the Strait and Iran's missile/drone attacks on Gulf states. As far as he's concerned, diplomacy with Iran is proceeding apace.
Trump: We seem to be getting along quite well with the Ayatollah. I would like to meet him. I will probably meet him at some point.
Also, here is the full exchange: Q: Do you think the blockade will still be in place by Labor Day? Trump: It could be, but I think it's unlikely. I think this will resolve itself fairly quickly.
Trump said a lot of interesting things in his NYP interview. He implied the blockade on Iran could be in place until Labor Day (September). He also suggested he would meet Iran's supreme leader at some point. FWIW if the US maintains its blockade, Iran is unlikely to allow the
We watch this every Halloween. It rules and Spader is fantastic in it.
Been thinking about this a lot and a few takeaways: - Real oil demand for use probably peaked a few years ago. - The bar for oil shocks is very high now albeit amply exceeded by this shock.
I think we are generally sleeping on the fact that China ramped imports up by 1-2 million bpd for over a year, and then slashed them by 6 million bpd in a few months, all through direct market interventions. If the closure of the strait of Hormuz is the biggest deliberate
McGurk studiously avoids saying anything about the current war, either positive or negative, which is itself an interesting response (even if it doesn't answer the question he was asked). If Iran is a US enemy, but one that cannot (it would seem) be defeated through military power, what comes next?
Biden's Middle East advisor suggests that America's war with Iran was unavoidable In a conversation with the American Jewish Committee, Brett McGurk, who was the Biden White House's top Middle East official, was asked: Was this war inevitable or was it avoidable? His answer
Also notable that there were two Trump-Bibi calls on Monday; things got more heated in the second. wsj.com/world/middle-e…
Trump used "salty language" with Netanyahu in recent calls, as he pressed for de-escalation in Lebanon that was endangering a potential deal with Iran, per @WSJ. Reporting suggests the admin is still trying to get a deal over the finish line; Trump is looking for clarity that Iran will never build a nuclear weapon and will dispose of its stockpile of enriched uranium.
Not saying they are going to do this--why would they? But, again as with Hormuz, they have demonstrated that they can.
So what does that mean? Short term, we can all applaud China's far-sighted approach to stock-building: they were clearly preparing for a crisis just like this one, and had steps in place to mitigate the impact. Longer term, just as we must all grapple with the reality that Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz again in the future, China suddenly axing 40% of its crude import slate is just something the oil world is going to have to live with.
I think we are generally sleeping on the fact that China ramped imports up by 1-2 million bpd for over a year, and then slashed them by 6 million bpd in a few months, all through direct market interventions. If the closure of the strait of Hormuz is the biggest deliberate market manipulation in history, what has happened with Chinese imports ranks as No. 2.
Adam Tooze @adam_tooze
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