♕Deborah Mayo♕ @learnfromerror
professor of philosophy of science, logic, experiment, statistical inference; now an independent philosopher & stock trader; split time in NYC & Va (and London) errorstatistics.com Joined November 2013-
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New CFP at Synthese! I invite you to contribute: Topical Collection: severity and learning from error
toss, get rid of; or shorthand for British king Wordle 1,799 3/6 ⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜⬜🟩⬜⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
I hesitate, as I am reluctant to give hints on today's word. Wordle 1,794 3/6 ⬜⬜🟩🟩⬜ ⬜⬜🟩🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
♕Deborah Mayo♕ retweeted
Justice demands that every individual or institution, that funded, conducted, or enabled high-risk virus research in Wuhan, along with the scientists who published those misleading papers while concealing their conflicts of interest, plus the journals that refuse to retract them, be held fully accountable. Anthony Fauci and his advisor may have been at the center of that ecosystem, but they were not alone. Many others have their fingerprints on it: researchers, intermediaries, journals, and gatekeepers who enabled the work and enforced their preferred narrative. Accountability should extend across the board. It shouldn’t stop at the surface. That means confronting and dismantling the network behind it. The public has every right to expect that.
The COVID cover-up goes all the way to the top. Fauci funded the Wuhan lab. Senior intelligence officials hid classified evidence from the president himself. Scientists were silenced. Millions paid the price. The DOJ has until May 11th to prosecute Fauci before the statute of
I can only compare my getting today's word on the second round to the last time a most unlikely guess turned out to be right. 🟨⬜⬜⬜🟨 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Was quite sure they'd never use such a simple word...but they did. Wordle 1,771 2/6 ⬜⬜⬜⬜🟨 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Some Bayesians refuse to grant frequentists the use of any term. Frequentist error probabilities are hypothetical claims associated with methods, (e.g., the prob test T would yield d(X) > d(x) computed under h'). If they were called X-probs, some Bayesians would still say, they're not X-probs, only posteriors are. Bayesians should allow frequentists to define their terms, reject their use if you don't like them, but don't insist they must be posteriors, when they're not.
@f2harrell @AprileBernardi @PavlosMsaouel @elmir1omerovic @StatModeling That's exactly why a Bayesian posterior is not an error probability. But the last sentence makes no sense--a prior is the cost of an error prob???
@f2harrell @AprileBernardi @PavlosMsaouel @elmir1omerovic @StatModeling Degree of belief in H given e is what Bayes gives--where's the error prob? There is none. An error prob is attached to a method for reaching error prone claims based on data. It tells us how often it does so erroneously.
@_bcalexan @f2harrell @AprileBernardi @PavlosMsaouel @elmir1omerovic @StatModeling Bayesian probs aren't error probs, can't tell just what the second means.
@f2harrell @AprileBernardi @PavlosMsaouel @elmir1omerovic @StatModeling Posterior probs aren't error probs, and what's more, they're not given error probabilities. As David Cox said: "they are what they are".
♕Deborah Mayo♕ retweeted
Reading @learnfromerror! 📖
Sure I can: Assume H. Derive a contradiction. Therefore H is in error.
Another example of the failure to understand reductio and falsification arguments errorstatistics.com/2026/03/26/com…
@learnfromerror @PavlosMsaouel @elmir1omerovic @StatModeling You cannot call something an error by assuming the very fact that would make it one.
I wouldn't call you this if you excessively flatter me for getting this silly word in just 2 rounds, since it was kind of surprising, little froggy. Wordle 1,764 2/6 ⬜⬜🟩🟨⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
@PrometheusCHT Hope you like it! It's 30 years. What do you think of asking people jeopardy-style questions about it, giving points of value
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