StackWisely @stackwisely

Everyone's situation is different. As a rough example... Persona A with $10 million who thinks we've come to the end of a 3 year bull run may prefer to lock in $10 million rather than potentially ride down to $4 or $5 million in a bear. They may choose to redeploy later if they see things as increasingly bullish. Person B with $100K invested may not care about going down to $40-$50K because it won't make that much difference in their lives to have that $100K. At a certain point, the absolute level of capital at risk makes some people more cautious. Risking $50K vs. risking $5 million. One is a good annual bonus. Another is a lifetime of savings. But as I said, everyone has a different situation which impacts how they make decisions

Did we just enter a Bitcoin bear market? In my September market update I explained why "my short-to-medium term expectations are currently low." The price was $113K. And it was clear that despite recently setting a new high at $124K, we were losing momentum. Despite every good headline imaginable, despite tons of ETF and corporate buying... The Bitcoin bull was losing steam. Yesterday I shared my latest thoughts on where we are on StackWisely. Tl;dr: Yes we may have just had a trend change, and we may have to wait a while for that trend to play out. Read the full piece here for free: stackwisely.com/insights/did-w… How low could we ultimately go? I added a bear market projection feature to the dashboard yesterday to answer that question. Based on 73 historical instances when we were at a similar cycle index, we could bottom somewhere in the $40K range as early as April 2026. This sounds dramatically lower than I personally expect. But that's what the data says. Like all predictions, take this with a grain of salt. And if you're in hodl only mode, by all means ignore this message and consume permabull content all the way down to the bottom. That's what I did in 2021. It was stressful, but I ended up with more BTC. It worked for me as a guy with no kids and an income. But my permabull days are over. I have kids to feed and more capital to protect. So these days I prefer to think in probabilities and plan accordingly. The most important thing is to make a plan that works for YOU instead of letting influencers (bullish or bearish) control your buying and selling decisions 🫡

@nft_mattyc @stackhodler $40K would really surprise me. But topping at $69K and falling below $20K shocked me too. Both of those taught me to expect the unexpected with BTC.

✅ Multi-cycle giga-resistance shattered. Let's have some fun.

The model-destroying bull run you've been waiting for is on the other side of this line. Will we break it?

Planning to buy-borrow-die instead of selling your Bitcoin? The Bitcoin-backed loan simulator is now live on Stack Wisely. You can now run your borrowing plan through bullish and bearish scenarios to see: - Will you risk liquidation? - How much can you borrow per year? - When is the optimal year or price to start borrowing? - How many BTC will you need for margin calls? - How much will you pay in interest and fees? - How much wealthier will you be if you borrow instead of sell? Bitcoin is still volatile. Running your plans through realistic bearish and bullish scenarios (instead of relying on a linear CAGR) will help you make smarter decisions. Loans will work well for some people. But others will be better off selling a little in the short term to avoid the stress of potential margin calls. And many will be better off continuing to stack. Whatever you do, just make sure you have a plan. Ideally before the euphoria clouds your judgement 🫡

@YammerTime01 Thank you for the concise summary 👍

We're currently projecting a top near $247,335 in October. Like all guesses at a top... This one should be taken with a HUGE grain of salt. Our core belief is that you should have a plan in place for a bullish AND bearish scenario. Including the possibility that we already topped. But we arrived at the ~$250K number by looking at all the times our long-term indicators were at a similar level in the previous cycle, taking the average gains remaining from there, and applying them to today. Another way to say it: "Historically when the market was at this point, we had 132% gains remaining on average." But these numbers look dramatically different if we include the 2017 cycle. With 2017 included, the forecast shifts to a top at $1,044,822 $1 million per coin by December 31st, 2025. That would indeed be a happy new year.

$108K per coin is an insult. But it's also a gift. Point one Bitcoin is still stackable. You know what to do 🫡

Stack Hodler @stackhodler

11 months ago

You're underestimating Bitcoin. You think we have adoption. You think being the 6th biggest asset is impressive. But it's absolute peanuts compared to where we're headed. $108K is a joke. Mere proof that the market lacks imagination. A policy directive to recognize BTC as a

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Bitcoin is nearing a decision point on the medium-term. - Weekly MACD is threatening a bearish crossover - Stack Wisely Cycle Index potential lower high - Weekly RSI potential lower high Bottom line: Momentum needs to pick up again otherwise we could be entering another bearish period. And if confirmed, this would be the first lower high on the Stack Wisely Cycle Index for this "cycle" - something worth paying attention to. On the flip side, we haven't been "overheated" since January despite recently setting a new all time high. You can either interpret that as meaning that we have plenty of room to run from here, or you can see it as a replay of November 2021 when we set a new high without reaching overheated levels. As an investor, you need to be prepared for all scenarios. If you're in stack-only mode, none of this matters. Stay solvent, create value, and DCA buy the world's only finite money. If you have significant wealth in BTC, create a plan that allows you to sleep comfortably in bearish and bullish scenarios. And then stick to the plan 🫡

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Just get your next point one Bitcoin as quickly as possible. You only need 10 grand. Put your mind to it and I guarantee you can scrape that together. One day it's going to take $100K. And you'll kick yourself for not treating point one BTC with the respect it deserves.

@AntonGoldhofer Yes, it will be available within the next week 👌

One of our users requested a new Bitcoin selling strategy: They want to sell $40K worth of BTC every week the next time the market overheats. And they want to stop selling once they have built up a $500K cash cushion to get them through a potential bear market. This is better than trying to time a "pico-top" and works well if you know your cash needs for the coming years. But one downside is that in the bear case, the market will never hit the overheated level so you'll end up heading into a bear market with zero cash cushion. Still useful to evaluate, so it's now available to all users as a template. Adjust the selling threshold and cash cushion size as needed 👌

Easiest way to think about it: 60 years of 17.7% CAGR. Which includes very aggressive adoption growth in the early decades, and aggressive technological process for the entire duration. It sounds very realistic to me when you consider BTC as an index for human / economic / tech progress. Perhaps even undershooting.

When could a Satoshi Billionaire retire? - Assume they need $15K per month (inflation adjusted) - They want to pass down significant wealth - They pay 15% capital gains tax Our simulations show that retiring January 1st, 2029 with a monthly DCA-out strategy is feasible in all scenarios. And they'll end up passing on at least $200 million in 2025 purchasing power terms. 10 coins is just over $1 million dollars today. A million in fiat isn't what it used to be. But a million dollars in Bitcoin can likely buy you permanent financial freedom in just 3.5 years. That's the power of The Ultimate Savings Technology.

@BitTintin @ivster48 That's exactly right. In the bear case you have more BTC, but the price is lower, so net worth. But this convo made me realize I should add back in the ending price because that makes it easier to understand. So thank you to both of you.

@ShamuCapital That's exactly what you're seeing in the screenshot (in 2025 dollars) You can switch it to future dollars as well in case you're curious, but I agree that putting it in today's purchasing power terms is the only way for it to be clear.

@highmount @stackhodler Pessimistic take. Optimistic take: They thrive because you gained financial freedom early enough to spend time with them and raise them properly, including teaching the honor in working to provide value for others as a means of personal and spiritual growth.

@ivster48 In the bull case, the price runs higher faster which gives you less time to DCA stack. Which means you end up with less BTC. Bull case is better for those who are already loaded with BTC, but worse for those who are slowly buying.

The Fed has held interest rates over 4% for 2.5 years. Israel is literally bombing Iran as I type this. And Bitcoin is $105,200. "Low interest rate phenomenon" and "not a geo-political hedge" theorists in shambles.

Same scenario with zero capital gains tax. You gain about a +$100 million advantage in today's dollars.