Things Noticed @thingsnoticed

I run an active stock portfolio. Noticing when the market's story about a company stops matching the business. $tickers, moats, narrative lag. Joined October 2020

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Things Noticed @thingsnoticed

a week ago

@Saladinbraham

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Things Noticed @thingsnoticed

a week ago

@Saladinbraham The $ADBE bull case is 850M users converting to paid. But if you need dark patterns and a 50% cancellation penalty to keep people in, I’m not sure that’s a funnel.

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a week ago

@TradexWhisperer I hope you are right.

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a week ago

@ariaradnia $DELL sold VMware, took $AVGO stock, and let Hock Tan run it. The 400% wasn't Michael Dell's doing... he "just" had the sense not to sell.

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a week ago

@LogicalThesis $MSFT missed mobile. Missed cloud early. The AI capex bet is I guess partly about not being late again.

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a week ago

@FinanceJack44 $META and $MSFT are the two biggest AI capex bets in the index -> maybe the market is already saying something about returns on that spend.

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$APP has run on a closed advertising platform for 14 years. AXON goes global self-serve this month. The bull case is obvious, addressable market expands dramatically. What I keep wondering about is the other side: a closed system trains on a tight, consistent signal. Opening it to every advertiser worldwide changes what the model has to optimize against. Maybe that makes it stronger. Maybe the edge was always the data flywheel, not the closed access. The June launch tells us which one it was.

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Things Noticed @thingsnoticed

2 weeks ago

$GOOGL raised ~$85B by selling stock. The obvious reaction is: why is a company this profitable diluting shareholders? Because $73B in free cash flow last year sounds enormous until you see $175–185B in CapEx guidance for 2026. The AI infrastructure bet is roughly 2x the size of the entire cash engine. And $BRK.B bought $10B in the same transaction. I guess both can be right at the same time - one says the bet needs outside capital, the other says that's exactly where they want to put theirs.

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2 weeks ago

@aleabitoreddit The market sold $NVDA execution risk but the people actually building it said timelines are accelerating, I guess that's the gap worth paying attention to.

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2 weeks ago

@CapexAndChill This one snuck up on me, every AI shopping agent is a new fee event for $MA on every leg of every split basket....

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2 weeks ago

@dariandemetri The thesis makes sense, though I'd really want to see $CRM base at a higher level first - the market needs to confirm it before the story does.

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Things Noticed @thingsnoticed

2 weeks ago

AI expands the menu. It doesn't replace the chef KPMG is hiring more people while deploying more AI. Not despite it. Alongside it. The market is pricing $ADBE $CRM $INTU like the chef is getting replaced. History says the chef just gets a bigger kitchen.

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Things Noticed @thingsnoticed

2 weeks ago

$MU needed a breather after running 200%+, I get that. But the selloff mechanism isn't what I'm watching. Stocks that climb fastest give back the most when sentiment turns, that's just how it works. June 24 is the only number that matters. Does $MU confirm the HBM cycle is locked multi-year, or does guidance show the first crack? Everything else between now and then is just price.

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2 weeks ago

$INTU down 63%. $CRM down 42%. $ADBE down 31%. All beat earnings, all raised guidance on the way down. $NOW recovered. Same sector, same AI threat. The market prices stories about businesses, not businesses. Not sure why that still surprises anyone.

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Things Noticed @thingsnoticed

2 weeks ago

Everyone screens $BPOP against US regional banks. Same industry bucket, same valuation framework, same peer group. But Popular operates in Puerto Rico with no serious competition - the kind of market position US regional banks haven't had in decades. Q1 EPS came in at $3.78, beat estimates by ~15%, and the company is buying back stock while trading below peer group multiples. I think, the market is pricing the category, not the business. Kind of makes you wonder how long that holds.